Football is easily the most popular Sport for betting on in the world. Where punters used to be happy placing antepost (long term) bets on who would win major leagues, nowadays punters are betting on one of the hundreds of options on offer of most football matches around the world. Interestingly, over 50% of bets taken are in-running (live betting) meaning that the match has already started when the bet was placed and over 60% of bets are placed via mobile device. By putting the last two statistics together it is easy to work out that the majority of bets are placed while people are watching a game (and probably from a pub!)
So what makes good football betting strategy and what factors should be considered when betting on football?
Motivation of Teams playing
Generally speaking, we consider that teams are playing with full ‘motivation’ all throughout the season. When we go to watch a match and pay money for a ticket, we expect the team that we are paying to watch to be playing to the beast of their ability with the best formation available to be played by the manager/coach of the team. In reality, in many leagues, when coming to the closing matches of the season if a team has ‘nothing to play for’ in other words they mathematically can’t get promoted or relegated then the dynamics of the match can significantly change. Another example is when a team has an extremely important match to play (for example a cup final) and just before they have a league match. The two examples above are situations where you can spot or find value and are great examples of football betting strategy. The team fighting for survival at the bottom of the table could be great value against the team who have won the league at the end of the season. It’s tough to turn this into a 14fold but it could go a way to help you picking some selections out that are worthy of being in your bet.
Look at Submarkets available
So let’s say that Barcelona, Man Utd, Juventus and Bayern Munich have (on paper) relatively easy matches to play at the weekend and you think that they are absolute bankers (sure to win). To be on the safer side, you might want to consider betting on ‘Over 0.5 goals’ in the game – in other words for there to be at least 1 goal in the game. Yes, sure, the odds will be extremely low but the likelihood of these teams drawing 0-0 in a relatively easy fixtures is extremely remote and now you would have your ‘banker’ bets set up for you.
Aim for Favourite Teams
Generally speaking when betting on singles I recommend looking for ‘underdog bets’ (teams/players that should not be the favourite on paper according to the odds) but actually are in reality. When it comes to finding a potential winning 14 fold bet, definitely, without question, you will need to find a good number of favourite teams that will be your ‘banker’ bets. You would be more likely to find some good value by looking further afield than the major leagues here and perhaps do some research on lower leagues or even teams in lower leagues in different parts of the world.
Check the Lineup and Formation
As soon as teams announce their lineups and formations there can be great value on offer when betting. It is worth keeping an eye on team announcements (especially via social media) and if you can get your bet on quick enough you could be on top a great little bet!
How far do teams have to travel?
This is an interesting consideration to keep an eye on – the further a team has to travel to an away fixture the more difficult it is for the travelling tea to adjust to the conditions. Dennis Bergkamp the ex-Arsenal legend was famously afraid of flying and unable to travel to many European away fixtures. Worth keeping an eye on this in particular in larger countries such as Russia.